Prices of Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor Industry Chain at Home and Abroad Continue to Price Rise (II)

Demand side: Japanese manufacturers withdrew from the low-end market, and demand shifted to the mainland and Taiwan. In recent years, due to high production costs and low profitability of products (for example, the global Nippon Chemi-con 2016H1 net profit margin of 0.8%), Japanese companies have gradually withdrawn from the middle and low-grade aluminum electrolytic capacitors market due to their unsustainable losses. On the other hand, due to the demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors driven by automotive electronics and servers, Japanese manufacturers are focusing on higher value-added automotive and industrial fields, releasing consumer electronics capacitors and materials market to non-Japanese manufacturers, and shifting demand to mainland China and Taiwan. . Supply side: Upstream electronic aluminum foil is out of stock and prices are rising. The main raw materials of aluminum electrolytic capacitors include electrode foils, aluminum shells, lead wires, electrolytic papers, and rubber stoppers. Among them, electrode foils are the key basic materials for the production of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, which are used to carry electric charges and account for 30% of the cost of production of aluminum electrolytic capacitors. -60%. The electrode foil is processed by a series of processes such as rolling, etching and chemical conversion of high-purity aluminum, and its production requirements are high. The performance of the electrode foil largely determines the key technical indicators such as capacity, leakage current, loss, life, reliability, and size of the aluminum electrolytic capacitor, and is also a part of the technical value of the aluminum electrolytic capacitor in the industrial chain. one. Electrode-foil procurement shifts to the mainland: According to statistics of Zhiyan Consultation, electrode foil suppliers mainly come from Japan and mainland China, of which mainland China is an important producer of aluminum foil and occupies approximately 70-80% of production, due to structural adjustments of Japanese electrode foil manufacturers, air-conditioning Household appliances such as household appliances, washing machines and other household appliances require a large amount of aluminum foil capacitors. Manufacturers buy aluminum foil products from aluminum foil manufacturers in mainland China, which also causes the shortage of aluminum foil in mainland China. The EIA strictly limits the electrode foil production capacity: According to Huafeng Shares, electricity accounts for more than 20% of electrode foil material costs. Due to the high power consumption of the electrode foil, the government will discharge the acid wastewater and irritant gas due to the electrode foil production. The government has strictly controlled the wastewater treatment quota for environmental protection this year. The increase in environmental pressure has caused some production capacity to stop production and the small aluminum foil factory has been eliminated. Upstream aluminum prices led to aluminum foil price increases: According to Taiwan’s China Times’s newsletter, industry sources said that aluminum accounts for approximately 50% of the total cost of aluminum foil, and aluminum raw material prices rose from 1800 US dollars per metric ton at the beginning of 2017 to 2200 in December 2017. In the US dollar, aluminum foil materials rose about 8% to 10% from October to November 2017. According to Taiwan’s China Electronics News, at present, Taiwan’s Department of Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors believes that there may be a shortage of high- and low-voltage aluminum foil in 2018. At present, the supply of aluminum foil is in short supply. It is estimated that the impact of aluminum foil shortage in China in November and December will be 15%-25%. The shortage of aluminum foil materials has led to downstream price fluctuations for passive components such as aluminum capacitors. From the pull time perspective, due to changes in sales strategies of Japanese capacitor manufacturers and the fact that China's upstream aluminum foil materials are in short supply, Japan’s capacitor manufacturers’ delivery schedule has been extended from the original 6 weeks to 12 weeks, and some Japanese capacitor manufacturers have The cargo schedule even reached half a year. On the one hand, due to the fact that Japanese capacitor products have extended their delivery dates, we believe that downstream customers are expected to increase orders from non-Japanese capacitor manufacturers and to pull orders from capacitor suppliers in mainland China and Taiwan. On the other hand, in terms of prices, Japanese and Taiwan-based capacitor manufacturers have already increased their prices, and mainland capacitor manufacturers are expected to benefit from the global price increase. Upstream electronic aluminum foils and electrode foils are also expected to increase in price in the absence of goods.